“The development of the demand & capacity model was born out of a need to get a more sophisticated understanding of the capacity our system needed, particularly in the winter months. On this basis, BaNES CCG approached the CSU to see whether they could help develop a model to fulfil this need. The CSU embraced the challenge, helping us shape the specification, build the model and identify the data feed requirements working with the Royal United Hospitals Bath NHS Trust and community providers, including Wiltshire Health & Care Trust and Virgin Care. They carried out testing and scenarios to help identify capacity shortfalls across our four discharge pathways to support our winter planning. As the senior responsible officer for the initiative, with limited technical expertise, the CSU completely understood the requirements, liaised effectively with partners and were responsive to requests for updates and presentations for various forums. We now have a model which we can continue to develop and evolve and test different scenarios and assumptions to help our system understand changing demand and capacity requirements.” Corinne Edwards, Interim Chief Operating Officer, NHS Bath and North East Somerset Clinical Commissioning Group
The Bath and North East Somerset A&E Delivery Board requested a dynamic, Excel-based model with the capability for input variables to be adjusted to allow for scenario testing. The model needed to determine the current performance, demand and sustainability of the system through an ability to change one or more of the variables, answering critical questions related to the level of non-elective hospital and out-of-hospital capacity required.
The model was conceptualised and developed from scratch to meet the specification
Data collection and presentation was and remains consistent with Information Governance protocols
Stakeholder testing was undertaken, with the CCG Executive Team, Strategic 4 hr meeting, A&E Delivery Board and acute provider business intelligence team. Development was responsive to feedback received via these routes
Development of community services modelling was undertaken in conjunction with Wiltshire Health & Care and Virgin Care
Coordinated assumptions gathering with system partners – CCGs, acute provider (RUH), three community providers
Multiple scenarios were run through the model and presented, including detailed work to factor in the impact of flu/norovirus outbreaks
Contributed to presentations at A&E Delivery Board
Detailed user guide and handover to local team.
Delivered the outputs needed for Winter, e.g. quantified the potential impact of different length of stay reduction scenarios resulting in a system understanding of the acute bed capacity required
Provided evidence-based verification of the current system position and challenges
Supported conversations between system partners
Facilitated an understanding of how changes in different parts of the system impact on each other
Provided a platform to support long term demand and capacity planning
The model has subsequently been implemented for the Salisbury Foundation Trust system.